How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is really a string of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques which will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own benefits and pitfalls and using them in isolation will improve your odds of winning. However, together they’ll prove invaluable in your conflict with the bookies. In every article, we’ll explain in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information that you go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also provide you with advice regarding where you can already find websites using this technique in incorporating their weekly predictions.
The statistical methods described in this group of posts should enable you to reach a better decision about the match, or games, which you are betting on.
Within this guide, we will be describing the Footyforecast technique. The Footyforecast method was originally designed for the English Football Pools and tries to remove those matches which will not be drawn, leaving you with a shorter list of games from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast site. This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our posts in this sequence.
Listed below are the basic rules…
For every team work out the following,
- 1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the previous N matches.
- 2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the previous N games.
- 3. Divide the total amount of points obtained by the most available and multiply by 100.
- 4. Calculate the forecast value.
In (1) and (2) preceding N matches could be all of the home games to the home side and all of the away games for the off side.
HOME POINTS = number of factors for home team from last N games
AWAY POINTS = amount of points for away team from last N games
HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100
AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100
To figure the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is contrasted with the following…
A value between 50 and 100 gives an increased chance of a home win the closer to 100.
A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing likelihood of an away win the closer to 0.
There are a few factors to consider, for example, the amount of matches to utilize and whether to utilize all matches or just home for the home side and just a way for offside to name but two.
By plotting actual resulting draws contrary to the prediction it is likely to create two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any worth involving these thresholds are likely drawn. All games out these thresholds will be less inclined to be drawn. For example, a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any games falling between 41 and 59 could be drawn.
This method does, with careful tuning by the consumer is to remove many matches which will not be draws providing you with a brief list to choose from. This procedure is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be utilized.
Here’s a worked example…
The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a succession of four recent matches, you obviously could choose more games to base your calculations on.
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)
A4 = 1 (oldest game)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (latest game)
Using only home games for the home side and just away games for off side…
FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
In case our threshold values are 40 and 60 afterward for this match the prediction lies in the anticipated draw area and at the lower end significance that if it isn’t a draw the most likely another result would be an off win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will take as a wager.
Now it’s your turn…
Of course, you may opt to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may develop with greater values to use. You might also opt to utilize all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You might decide to have different thresholds than those shown above. You could also find it beneficial to plot real results from the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the off win, draw, and house win forecast zones.
If you have the necessary abilities you can go away and build your personal spreadsheet of data or even write a bit of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you are lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then see 1X2Monster where you can download an FREE copy of this Footyforecast 2.0 software which implements all of the statistical methods described in this series of posts. You will also have the ability to download FREE weekly database updates to your applications, how cool is that?