How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical approaches which will help the soccer punter make more educated bets. All these techniques have its own benefits and pitfalls and using these in isolation will enhance your odds of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In every article, we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information that you go ahead and make your own forecasts. We’ll also provide you with advice as to where you can already find sites using this technique in incorporating their weekly predictions.
The statistical methods described in this group of articles will allow you to arrive at a better choice about the match, or games, which you are betting on.
In this article, we will be describing the well-known Rateform method. The premise of this Rateform technique is that each of both teams getting involved in a game is given a point score that is based on their existing form. Although this seems very simplistic, and it is, its calculation is a little more involved.
Listed below are the basic principles…
1. Each team is given a point score representing their current form.
2. At the beginning of the year each team is given 1000 points.
3. The home team supplies more points into the kitty than the away team.
4. This is done in order to reflect the home teams advantage of playing at home.
5. The winning team takes the kitty unless the end result is a draw in which case both sides share the points. In the case of a draw the away side benefits points and the house side loses points.
This is how a normal calculation is made…
Home team points total = HTPOINTS
Away team points total = ATPOINTS
Home team contribution to kitty = HTKITTY = 7% of HTPOINTS
Away staff donation to kitty = ATKITTY = 5% of ATPOINTS
The kitty consequently = KITTY = HTKITTY + ATKITTY
In the event, the end result is really a HOME WIN afterward
Home team receives KITTY points additional to HTPOINTS
Away team receives zero points added to ATPOINTS and looses its 5% contribution to the kitty
If outcome is an AWAY WIN then
Home team receives zero points added to HTPOINTS and looses its 7 percent donation into the kitty
Away team receives KITTY points additional to ATPOINTS
In the event, the result is a DRAW afterward
Home team receives KITTY / two points added to HTPOINTS
Away team receives KITTY / two points added to ATPOINTS
Let us look at an easy example of how to apply this…
To figure the possible outcome of a match based on rateform the away rateform is subtracted in the home rateform and the distinction is contrasted against put values for home, away and draw possibilities.
For example we can make our set values as follows:
AWAY WIN -250 DRAW 150 HOME WIN
So, in case the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE is significantly less than -250 then the match is very likely to be an off win, in case the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE is higher than 150 then the game is likely to be a home win, and if the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE lies involving then the result is the most likely to be a draw.
Now it’s your turn…
Of course, you may opt to use unique values to those shown above and by experimentation, you may come up with better values to use. You could also opt not to reset every group points to 1000 in the beginning of the year but rather have them carry over into another season. Another option would be to have a rolling calculation where you calculate the rateform for each team on say the last six months.
If you have the required skills you could go away and construct your own spreadsheet of data or even write a bit of software to take in fixtures and results and put on the Rateform method for your data. Or, if you are lazy like me, then you can grab some free software that already does this for you.