How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is really a series of articles that explain some well known and well employed statistical approaches that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your odds of winning. However, together they’ll prove invaluable in your conflict with the bookies. In every article we’ll describe in detail how a specific method works giving you enough information that you go ahead and create your own forecasts. We’ll also give you advice regarding where you can already find sites that use this particular technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.
The statistical methods described in this group of articles will help you to arrive at a better choice about the game, or games, that you are betting on.
Within this article we will be describing the well known Simple Sequence procedure. The Simple Sequence procedure is not merely a single method, there are a lot of ways of devising a simple sequence process, and you could probably devise one of your own. How the Simple Sequence method is implemented from the Footyforecast 2.0 program and on the 1X2Monster website is to utilize a weighting factor on each of a succession of games.
Listed below are the basic principles…
A number of games are utilized to return at from the forecast date. So let us say our staff gets got the following results (latest on the Ideal hand side):
This would provide them the following things: 3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7
Now to take into consideration current form each is given a weighting variable, so the earliest game is multiplied by 1 up to the most recent match being multiplied by 5. Of course this will vary depending on the number of matches you use, but for this instance it gives us the following:
Now let us say the away team playing against the group above have the following listing:
W W D D D
They will have:
The points gap HOME v AWAY = 20 – 21 = -1.
Now, depending how you classify this it could represent an away win, i.e. all matches under a points difference of 0 = off win, or it might be classed as a draw.
Let us look at an example…
For our example we will use the last ten games played for each group. That’s the last ten home games for the home side, and the previous ten away games for the away side. The match is between Middlesbrough and Bolton Wanderers in the English Premiership played on 20th Jan 2007.
0*1 + 0*2 + 3*3 + 3*4 + 3*5 + 1*6 + 0*7 + 1*8 + 3*9 + 3*10
0+0+9+12+15+6+0+8+27+30 = 107
L W W W D L L W W L
0*1 + 3*2 + 3*3 + 3*4 + 1*5 + 0*6 + 0*7 + 3*8 + 3*9 + 0*10
0+6+9+12+5+0+0+24+27+0 = 83
Therefore the gap is
107 — 83 = +24
This might be determined as a home win but depending on your favorite threshold levels can be hailed as a draw.
Now it is your turn…
Of course you might opt to use unique values to those shown previously and by experimenting you may come up with better worth to use. You might also choose to utilize all the home and away games played by each team in your calculations rather than just home games to the home team and away games for the away team. You might decide to have different thresholds than those displayed previously. You may also find it valuable to plot real results against the Simple Sequence method predictions to find out how many real draws fall in the off win, draw, and house win prediction zones.